Racial and ethnic differences in hypertension risk: new diagnoses after age 50.

OBJECTIVES Our study examines the differences in estimated risk of developing hypertension in Whites, Blacks, and Mexican-Americans aged > or = 50 for a period of 11 years. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Data came from 9,259 respondents who reported being hypertension-free at the baseline in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) with up to five time intervals (1998-2006). Discrete-time survival models were used to analyze ethnic variations in the probability of developing hypertension. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Estimated odds of developing hypertension. RESULTS The risk of newly diagnosed hypertension increased between 1995 and 2006 for HRS participants aged > or = 50. After adjusting for demographic and health status, the probability of incident hypertension among Black Americans was .10 during the period of 1995/96-1998, which increased steadily to .17 in 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence over the 11-year period at 51%. In contrast, among White Americans the risk was .07 during 1995/96-1998 and .13 in 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence at 43%. For Mexican-Americans, the probability also increased from .08 during 1995/ 96-1998 to .14 during 2004-2006, with cumulative incidence at 42%. CONCLUSIONS Relative to White and Mexican-Americans, Black Americans had an elevated risk of incident hypertension throughout the 11-year period of observation. These variations persisted even when differences in health behaviors, socioeconomic status, demographic, and time-varying health characteristics were accounted for.